The Future Of IT -- Very Big and Very Small?

So, you either believe that IT is undergoing yet another upheaval, or you don't.

You either buy into Nicholas Carr's core premise (as found in "The Big Switch"), or you don't.

But if you do buy into these ideas, there's another implication to consider.

There will likely be very little medium-sized IT in the future.  Just the very big, and the very small.

Signs Of The Times

Nick's basic argument is that, over time, IT is done much more efficiently at uber-scale.   Much like power generation shifted from small-scale to large-scale at the beginning of the 20th century, we're seeing the same thing applied to IT at the dawn of the 21st century.

IT, as we know it today, becomes primarily a consumer of outside IT services, some generic, some specialized.

He points to the usual examples of Google, Amazon, et. al. as early examples of this phenomenon.

The Benefits Of Really Big IT

IT, done on a sufficiently large scale, has inarguable economic benefits.  Consider the advantages of a uber-data-center conveniently located next to hydroelectric or geothermal power, as an example.

Or, through sufficient large scale automation, dramatically decreasing the need for perhaps the most expensive component of IT, e.g. people to run things?

Not to mention that all-important negotiation leverage when you buy things at really big scale.

Going further, IT done at uber-scale has the potential to address thorny problems around security, service delivery, change management, and other problematic issues that traditional IT wrestles with.

The Benefits Of Really Small IT

I met a guy whose IT department had decided that everyone needed iPhones.

(excuse me while I experience a moment of device envy ...)

Most every IT service was in the process of being exposed as a web page, or a mashable service if you liked.

He said he really didn't use his PC that much anymore, except for typing, looking at complex docs, etc.  He said that he thought of his iPhone as his primary "user device". 

The PC had become a specialized tool to use when and if you needed it.

Going further, he explained that he had the ability to freely mash up internal services and external services.  Of course, they all had access to social software for conversational collaboration, et. al.

He really, really liked it.

I felt I was given a privileged peek into a future reality.

I think I can best characterize this as "really small IT".  Put users in charge of what they need.  Make them mobile, make them mashable.  Albeit, this was not your average company ... but I found what they were doing absolutely fascinating on several levels.

What This Means

A lot, really, if it's all true.

If you're an IT vendor, you're going to have to decide which end of the spectrum you want to play at in the long term -- the really, really big end, or the really, really small end.

If you're an IT professional, you're going to be called upon to help with the transition, and create value for your organization in entirely new ways.

And, if you're an IT consumer (like I am), you're going to be much more in charge of your information than ever before.

I wonder if we're ready?